Real Estate Investment Outlook and Perspective - Implocations to Investors in 2010

Apartment vacancy rates are expected to rise through 2010 to about 7% to 10%. The continued collapse in confidence about jobs hampers household formation as individuals may delay marriage or move back in with parents or relatives or double up with friends.

As foreclosures rise, there will likely be greater demand for replacement housing so vacancy rates may fall. And as workers try to keep their options open to accommodate moving for job opportunities, demand for rentals will likely increase as well. The caveat is that there will also likely be a range of supply options that will put pressure on rents. And as a result of continued poor economic conditions, landlords can expect that credit quality of tenants will erode.

Apartments will have to compete with an increasing supply of single-family homes. Currently, the single-family homes available for rent has ballooned to nearly 10% compared to the long-term average of 4.5%. And a change of policy by mortgage servicer Fannie Mae will allow renters living in homes or apartments where the landlords have been foreclosed on to no longer be evicted. This will likely mean that largest landlord of single-family rentals in the US will be a quasi-governmental entity.

The volume of sales in the multi-family market is way off and likely to continue. Potential buyers continue to wait for prices to stabilize. There will continue to be an upward shift in cap rates by 1% to 2% approaching the cap rates of 2002 (8.2%) which will directly contribute to downward pressure on prices in the range of another 10% to 20%.

And given the more stringent underwriting criteria like higher down payment requirements, the number of investors capable of acquiring a property will likely be limited. But there will be opportunities for those investors with the capital and credit to buy when prices stabilize.